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tv   Squawk Box  CNBC  November 1, 2012 6:00am-9:00am EDT

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i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and an crdrew ross sorki and wall street is getting back to business. trading volume was afternoon and today we'll have a few more data points to absorb. adp, results from exxonmobile, pfizer, and retailers. also this morning we have a big lineup ready to go including our guest host today. julian robertson, we'll get his take on the fiscal cliff and the election that is fast approaching. a and one former governor who has weathered several major storms in his state of florida, jeb bush, he'll be our special guest coming up at 8:00 a.m. all that plus as we mentioned the new adp employment report. mark zandi will deliver the report to us first on cnbc. let's get over to andrew with more of today's top stories. >> joe, i think actually we're going to go and talk to mary
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thompson. as new jersey begins to recover, gas lines are growing. mary thompson is on the new jersey turnpike this morning. mary, good to see you. but there's been a lot of lines and a lot of people talking about this. >> reporter: yeah, very frustrating situation. take a look behind me, you can see the line at the vince lombardi station. and what you can't see is that it stretches down just about a half a mile to the entrance to this rest stop. our cameraman waited in line to get gasoline, he said it took him about 25 minutes. and brian sullivan drove past it yesterday and said the line was at least 200 cars deep. similar scenes like there are being played out all over new jersey as well as long island. residents driving across state lines to find gas, others expressing increasing frustration with the situation. >> impossible.
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can't get it. and we have no lights on, so i have to get a gas can for a generator. >> it's a game. we have so much gas right down the street in elizabeth. no reason we can't have gas. >> reporter: but there is a reason. yesterday just from personal experience, i drove around morris town for two hours before i found gasoline. most only selling diesel at this point. the reasons for the lines are different this time. and here's why. first of all, there is no power at the retail outlets. a number just can't open. second of all, at some of the retail outlets, there may not be supply because they've already pulled out. but most importantly, there have been pow and flooding issues at the terminals in new jersey and long island. the gasoline then delivered to those retail outlets. so some of these retail outlets just conditions get supply. take a look at a number of terminals.
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this is just an abbreviated list impacted by either flooding or power outages. most refineries are up and running close to full capacity. one running at a lower capacity and one still completely out. but that means there will be gasoline that will be made p about again, the issue is the distribution system. these terminals cannot be functioning and get the trucks to the retail outlets. so what you do is you bring in glep from a couple of other states, i.e. connecticut and pennsylvania, that means trucks have to be brought into deliver that fuel and he says his sources tell him that there should be some more trucks heading to new jersey. but residents should expect the situation to last at least a couple more days. >> mary, thank you for that. and this is a big story here on the "wall street journal."
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this is a line for generators. >> mary, i do know some that are open near by. route 46, there are a couple. >> on on lombardi, both are dark because they don't have electricity. i won't even -- well, i guess i should. route 46, a couple sunocos that are open and they actually have cones into the street putting you into the lane to on go into the gas station. and i saw one headed the other way -- >> what were the lines like this
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morning? >> they were manageable. at most probably 25 minutes. >> this is at 4:00 a.m. in the morning. >> right. >> and yesterday 96th street, there's one station upper west side. people were waiting 2 1/2 hours, fights breaking out in the lines. >> if you're waiting in line and you can only get $20, i don't know how much you use while you're waiting. >> mary, i passed that one this morning and you dropped a mike or something? what was that? the trucks make the lines look a lot longer, but that one i passed and thought about it and i gout t on route 46 and on the left-hand side, the line wasn't that bad at sunoco. >> but you saw one on the other side?
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>> the other side looked good, but maybe it only has diesel. i don't know. i have a half tank, so i was thinking do i, don't i. >> you should in any circumstances like this. are you without power? >> i have a generator that runs on natural gas. >> so you're one of the lucky ones. and i'm sorry i dropped the mike and cut out here, but this also hurts small businesses because the retail outlets can't sell gas. here at vince lombardi, the manager told me they were doing at least triple the average business that they usually do. so again it hurts a lot of the small businesses in the area that can't have access to the gas or they don't have power. i mean, driving through new jersey, there were no stoplights in a numb towns chmber of towns. so it's a tough situation. >> hopefully the power comes back and when there's demand like that, there's money to be
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made. so there will be trucks coming from other states with gasoline i'm sure. >> the governor is allowing gas to come in. >> he signed the order to waive the right that gasoline could come across from other states. so that should help maybe ease it in some ways. but i think the number one they think is you had power at some of the retail gasoline. but if the terminals get the power back, it doesn't mean that they're up and running. it still takes them a while to get them all on line. so it could be a couple days before they're fully functioning once little power starts again. >> i could driv okocould drive pennsylvania to fill my tank, but then drive back and it would be empty. >> that's what happened to me. i was driving back from pennsylvania yesterday and i spaesed out essentially and when i looked up, my gas tank was pretty empty. and it took me quite a while.sp
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when i looked up, my gas tank was pretty empty. and it took me quite a while.ap when i looked up, my gas tank was pretty empty. and it took me quite a when i looked up, my gas tank was pretty empty. and it took me quite a while.csd when i looked up, my gas tank was pretty empty. and it took me quite a and when i looked up, my gas tank was pretty empty. and it took me quite a while.ed when i looked up, my gas tank was pretty empty. and it took me quite a while.d n i looked up, my gas tank was ed outed out essentially i looked up, my gas tank was pretty empty. and it took me quite a while.ed i looked up, my gas tank was pretty e >> back in 1978, coming back from college, i ran out and had to walk back to find it and the gas station was dark. so i carried it back, filled it, found it. but it's frightening to be stuck on -- mary, thanks. careful with the mike. those things are expensive. >> okay. so sorry. >> many residents of new york city are still without power and many are cut off from basic services. tensions are starting to run fairly high. andrew was kind of in a bad mood this morning. scott cohn -- maybe that was because of cat in the hat last night. >> we have refugees in our
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house. people below 34th street who still don't have any power, we have people living in -- >> squatters. what's going on scott, where are you? all right i'm on water street in lower manhattan. the each river is a good half a mile from here, but this place was under water and they're still pumping it out as you can see. see the water line there? so this water was up more than waist high. and so no workouts anytime soon, that's obvious. and one thing that will be missing for a long time to come is the wall street "power lunch." take a look at video that we shot at harry's restaurant.
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they got about four feet of water. there was water everywhere, water in the wine cellar, you name it. it's very much a tale of two cities in manhattan. you have the power out below 34th street. the power on on above 34th street. and there will has been epic traffic, gridlock in manhattan. so what they've done is instituted restrictions. three people in a vehicle coming into the city from basically all of the i don'tings. subway service will be back. that will help ease the strain somewhat.
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remember that whooil thile this financial district traditionally, a lot of financial firms relocated to midtown and other parts of the city after 9/11. so we're dealing with a lot of issues and sharp contrast down here in the old financial district and the rest of the city. so if you're trying to get a hold of a broker or somebody else, be patient because people are having a tough time getting around. >> i worry public transport might be worse today in the city than it was even yesterday given there will be an influx of people coming in. but as you were saying, below 34th street, there's no way to get down there unless you get in a taxicab or bus. or walk. the traffic is something to be hold. do you think it gets better today or worse this.
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>> i think it will be a balancing act. the one thing that we have going for us now is that some subway service, some mass transit is back uptown. and they do have buses running again after daylight. they don't have buses running down here during the dark, overnight or before dawn, because it's just 00 dangerous. so you have some mass transit coming back. yesterday they were getting around fairly well. there were car services coming down the area. clearly some firms had arranged for van service and things like that. and there were taxis. so in that respect, it could be a little better, but the more people come back in, the more stress it puts on. so it really will be a balancing act. i worries as people get impatient, if they don't have the power back it for a few day,
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it will get difficult and it will debt gikt to continue to deal with this in trade as people seem to be doing right now. >> we had friends that came up to our after themeapartment las blocks, a 2 1/2 hour drive. normally ten minutes. >> and it's getting cold out there. >> any type of normal routine is gone. the starbucks in summit is opennd at dunkin donuts is open. there's a pizza place open, but there are lines that go -- like starbucks, i described it as a lower intestine and everybody got grossed out.
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but it's a total maze. who will wait in star bucks for an hour and a half? these folks we have on today, huge romney guys. i'm worried about you. i want you to just take a deep breath. >> i'm going to have a great morning. this is like a cocktail party of the morning. >> a billionaire are solar. i don't know how that happened. >> smart guy. >> still pitching the no fossil fuels. we'll have to ask how we'll manage that. but this is like what it's like in an all solar world. it would be worse than this, just so you know. just take a good look around. >> why want to tell you what the
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cover of business week looks like. >> i know what it is. >> it says it's global warming, stupid. >> i saw al qaeda was blaming it on our nasty activities around the world. i would bet you that the link is about to have the same chance of being true of either one. >> governor cuomo was talking about this yesterday, how the storms are coming in more and more frequently. insurance companies are saying that -- >> they're the not though. >> but they're hitting major population centers and maybe causing more problems there. >> to look at anything on a ten year, 100 year or 1,000 year basis on a planet that's 5 billion years old -- >> but it's out there. last year pakistani flooding was the reason. every single -- my entire life,
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i've seen these events. i remember andrew and they talk about this as the worst thing in 100 years. well, something happened 100 years ago when there wasn't, you know, 400 parts per million. >> let's tee a look at the markets this morning. yesterday things were calm and collected, not major moves. but things seem to go off without a hitch. this morning you're looking at the futures indicating slightly lower. the s&p futures are off by three. nasdaq futures are off by less than one point. oil prices slightly higher this morning. up by about 13 cents. 86.37 for wti. brent crude down by 45 cents. also the ten year note at this point, the yield on that is sitting right at 1.71%. we to hado have a lot of numbert are out this morning. adp numbers will be out today
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and maybe that gives yous some sort of an indication on what to expect tomorrow for that big jobs report. you can see the dollar is stronger across the board. dollar is up against the swiss franc, as well. and gold prices this morning up by about $4.60. time for the global markets report. kelly evans is standing by in london. are you missing new york? >> i have to say i got out of there saturday night which was just in time. we've seen airlines including even over here talking about the hit that they're taking as people cancel their flights because they can't get in to new york. so my heart believe me is with friends and family over there who are still struggling to get back on line. from a london point of view at the markets, it's basically a lack of conviction.
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we've seen the shanghai up almost 2%. key china pmi figures did show a bottoming. the nikkei is struggling to add gains. weak earnings from panasonic, sharp and other electronics makers. swing over to you'europe, the s phenomenon at play. you have essential hely macro factors and incredibly weak greek pmi figure falling. you have a weak than expected uk figure of weighing on shares this morning. this is despite the fact that we had okay earnings from some of the other british companies. royal dutch shell, shares up 1%. they did beat estimates even though the cfo said he's seen evidence of a weak economy all
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around us. you were talking about climate change and this issue of whether it's responsible for some of the weather changes that we've seen. munich re had created a bit of a firestorm when it put out a report noting that north america was seeing mcs in unusual events and attributed it to climate change. it caused quite a stir at the time. back to you. coming up, chris christie touring the carnage. millions still without power. mass transit trying to get back to line. we'll get a progress report.
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this morning not a lot of movement. yesterday the sale. things orderly in the first day of trading since everything was shut down because of sandy. this morning futures down by about two points. nasdaq up by about 2 1/4 points. jfk and newark airports both operational on wednesday, but saw very few flights. jpk is seeing more arrivals than departures, but net back to
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normal. courtney reagan is at laguardia this morning. >> reporter: good morning. so we haven't yet seen a plane take off here. the first plane is scheduled to take off in about 40 minutes from now. i've been here for over an hour and i got to say, i have never seen laguardia so quiet. i think there are more employees here than passengers. and i went counter to counter and american airlines basically said when i asked how many flights were scheduled to take off, it is very, very limited. he said it will keep changing all day long. air tran said they don't have a plane taking off until 1:00. it's like you were talking about earlier with that coordination, you have to get all the people in the right places. so i think laguardia will see what jfk and newark saw yesterday with more arrivals than departures.
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normally about 1,000 flights a data off from laguardia. we won't get anywhere close to that. and getting the employees here is also another challenge. we still have mass kratransit limited. so that will be tough. >> courtney, we were watching yesterday and the passenger who said that he would wait for the first flight, was he still around? >> he does take off today. i think there was some mix up yesterday. the ticket was actually dated for yesterday, and had been reissued for yesterday. that did turn out to be wrong, but he's back today. >> we hope that he gets off safely today. thank you, we'll check in with you later this morning. when we come back, restoring the store. kayla tausche moving her way to the shore points. atlantic city yesterday, today in seaside heights, new jersey which saw its economy get washed away.
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good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. millions of individuals still without power. people stranded all over the country. but is there any progress being made on the fronts? jackie deangelis has some of the stats with us. >> that's right, joe. president obama met with new jersey governor chris christie yesterday. the president touring some of the worst hard hit areas of the jersey shore saying 2,000 fema personnel are on the gloupd rou affected states. at least 74 people have died in
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the u.s. as a result of sandy. most of them from new york and new jersey. still 5.6 million customers in the dark. and it may be ten days before the hardest hit areas sea power restored. more than 19,000 flights were canceled because of sandy, but stranded passengers have something to be thankful for. newark and jfk airports were back in business yesterday and delta and american airlines are scheduled to resume a limited number of flights out of laguardia in about 30 minutes. the mta is also getting back to business with new york city subways offering limited service starting today. the m tcta is waiving all fees until tomorrow. so good news there. >> we're looking for any good news so thank you. the eye of hurricane sandy has
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hit the jersey shore hard. it wiped away entire economies. president obama surveyed the damage with chris christie yesterday. this morning kayla tausche is in toms river, seaside heights. what's it look like there? >> reporter: it's very dark here. we're at the mouth of the bridge which leads over to sea sooid heights, a road only accessible by emergency vehicles and that will be that way for the foreseeable future. but here's the state of sandy recovery in new jersey. the death toll has climbed to 14 in the garden state. nearly 2 million residents are still without power. and over 4,000 people remain in shelters here in new jersey. there's actually a big shelter here nearby in toms river. one of the onlien wog in the state that actually allows pets, so you can imagine how crowded that one is. but here recovery will be a long
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process. for residents who live here full-time or formerly lived here full-time, you can imagine that the first call is to fema. 2,000 representatives on the ground. and they expect fema will be able to give them more immediate help versus the longer claims process from insurance companies at least for the time being. estimates of damage are now totaling roughly $50 billion. that's more than triple what hurricane irene cost. but still far plea record costs of hurricane katrina several years ago. governor christy hie has pledgeo rebuild the shore but that would come at an even greater cost. and where he withstand, we have to tell you as we were driving in, there are actually school buses blocking the flooded roads. you can imagine with no school in session and very thin police availability given everything that's going on, all the emergency situations, they're use aing school buses to deter cars from going down dangerous roads.aing school buses to dete cars from going down dangerous school buses to deters from going down dangerous roads.
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this boat was across the street and police have propped it up to get it out of the way so that emergency vehicles can keep going. of course that's the only way that you can get on the island here. back to you. >> have there been other people that you've seen out on the streets or is it pretty deserted aside from the emergency personnel? >> reporter: it's actually very deserted. and it's pretty eerie. i've seen all the pictures of manhattan and below 14th street and 39th street completely black. imagine that for miles and miles here in new jersey. and still nearly 2 million people without power, businesses that wouldn't be turning on the lights for some time. and we passed several gas stations in our drive tonight and a lot of them were actually working and had the lights on. you can imagine that the priority is to get some of the gas stations up and running. but the difference granted we were there in the middle of the night, but the difference was there weren't really many people there. they can't moeblg liz to actually get there.
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so we'll be taking inventory of how the gas station scene looks later today when people start waking up. >> and then the other question, you mentioned there they won't be letting people through any of these roads. the emergency personnel, do they have any idea how long it will be, are they thinking weeks at this point before they let people back in the area? will. >> i think they are thinking weeks. and remember, most of these barrier islands, the population swells during the summer, but only a few thousand people that live there year round. the bulk did evacuate and get to shelters and our understanding is that the first responders, one of their first priorities was getting over there to make sure going door to door that people were safe and getting those people to shelters and finding them a home. so it's unclear at this point how many people remain on the island that need to be serviced and helped. but we do believe that a lot of hose have made their way inland to relatives houses or shelter nearby. >> all right, kayla, thank you
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very much. in the meantime let's take another look at the markets. futures have been relatively quiet this morning. you can see that the dow futures down by about 4 1/2, s&p less than 2. nasdaq up by a couple points. in europe as we he heard from kelly earlier, moderate gains. ftse up by 21, cac up by 16, and germany, the dagx up by 42. in asia, green arrows there as well. the big gainer is the shanghai composite up by 1.7%. oil prices this morning are just slightly higher for wti, up by about 16 cents to 86.40. brent crude down by 20 cents. the ten year note yielding about 1.7%. yeah, 1.712%. and we have numbers headed our way, 8:15 is the adp employment report. 8:30, a sense of what's happening as things start to get back to some sort of normal
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reporting. you can also see right now the dollar is stronger across the board. the euro is at 1.2948 right now. gold prices up by $4 or $5. $1723.67 an ounce. and cigna reporting quarterly profit of $1.71 per share, that's excluding certain items. compare to estimates of $1.36. revenues also came in above consensus with cigna benefitting from the acquisition of health spring earlier this year. we did talk about that transaction. cigna also raising its earnings forecast for the year to $5.70 to $5.90, that compares to estimates of $5.54. >> other stocks that we'll be watching, visa reported quarterly profit of $1.54 a share, four cents above estimates. visa benefited in an increase in overseas business especially in the asia pacific region. allstate earned $1.46 a share
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for the third quarter. 33 cents above estimates with revenue also beating consensus by a wide margin. the insurance company saw increased revenue from premiums as well as smaller catastrophe losses. and jda software reportedly on the verge of being acquired by new mountain. they'll pay $45 a share. a tooflgts $1.9 billion. the stock had jumped 12% yesterday on reports that the company might put itself up for sale. >> if you have comments, questions about anything you see here, squawk the at still ahead, tech jobs in america, how many are really out there and are they being filled? that's coming up next. plus kate kelly will be checking the supply chain for gasoline getting in to the tri-state area. i'll have to ask her if i have to car pool back into the city after the show. ♪
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take a look at u.s. equity futures. s&p 500 would be off marginally. nasdaq would be up marginally after a relatively smooth opening yesterday. as we a wait key employment data today and tomorrow, the question, what's going on in tech land? and we have somebody who has a
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good answer for us i hope. ceo of dice holdings. scott, tech land, is that where the jobs are right now? >> tech is definitely a great place to be today. if you look at the market, it's still a tight labor market. about 3.5 unemployment in the tech sector. demand died down in q2, but still very stable and a good place to be. >> we're see adp today, we'll get the up in numbers tomorrow. do you want to place an expectation? >> i think we'll see more of the same here. there's really no catalyst out there for change at this point. our customers are taking a wait
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and see attitude to see how the election turns out, see whether there's the fiscal cliff, see what's happening in europe. and it's just enough uncertainty that they're kind of treading water. listings about 85,000 tech jobs here in the u.s. on our site. that's great, up about 80% from a couple years ago. but farley stable firly stable few months. >> if you're talking about a wait and see election, waiting for the election, waiting for the fiscal cliff, does that mean come january whatever happens there will be pent up demand and companies will get back to maybe hiring people that they had been waiting to hire? >> i think the maybe markets hate uncertainty because it's a very serious decision of firing people. so the good news is we'll have certainty because we'll have a new administration, it will allow companies to finalize
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their plans and move forward. >> so there will be hiring in january no matter what? >> absolutely. >> i want to talk about the types of jobs that are available now and you think after january. is there going to be a sift shift? >> professional side will it - continue to churn along. in the tech world, there are a number of hot areas in tech right now driven by new technology that businesses have to use, whether it's mobile apps, virtualization, cloud computing, large data or big data analysis. these are all new technologies that businesses have to deal with today that they didn't have to deal with just a few years ago. >> a number of websites help you learn how to write code. kids trying to learn new skills. can they actually do that or are you finding there are jobs
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available for people like that who figured it out sort of on their own? >> there's definitely developer jobs. we have more application developer positions on on our site than at anytime before. i'm not so sure you can learn all the skills you need to know from and online course. a better course of sacks to go to the community colleges and get formally trained. >> okay. appreciate it. coming up at 8:15, we'll get the brand new adp employment report for the month of october. we'll have the newspapers first with mark zandi. first month for him. >> coming up, super storm sandy leaving millions without power in the northeast and shutting down public transit. that has put a strain on gasoline supply lines as people depend on fuel and generators. up next, kate kelly brings us a live report from a gasoline distribu term until and at
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days after hurricane sandy, the focus on northeast oil and gas suppliers have shifted from refineries to terminals. the storage facilities that gather and distribute gasoline as well as jet fuel to the new
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york city region and kate kelly is at one of those terminals in linden, new jersey with more te linden, new jersey, with more potential problems. is the whole neighborhood dark, too, linden? i figure it doesn't have a whole lot of power. >> reporter: for the most part it is, joe. i drove here with very few street lights and as i'm about to discuss there were huge lines at some of the gas stations. we're here in linden, new jersey, a key part of the east coast fuel corridor because of refineries and pipelines and because of the storage tanks you can see behind me which are part of the terminal business, there are about 12 to 15 terminals in the new york harbor that help serve the new york city and its environment when it comes to gathering and storing refined products like gas leoline of coe for our cars and jet fuel that we need for the city and it's environment. we're at newstar and more than a dozen of its siblings has not
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reopened, they're assessing the damage, getting the water out, getting power. when that happens remains unclear. the idle terminals are creating a choke hold on gas and jet supplies from new york to the new jersey area. we face long fuel lines in the area and often gas stations running out of supplies. prices $4 to $4.50, due in part to the damaged terminals and it's unclear when they'll come back online on an airline industry call yesterday gauging the terminal's health was the top priority given so many flights have been cancels. those are a key piece of the puzzle, at least they're coming online in partial capacity but the issues with the terminals and also restrictions on ship travel up and down the east coast are creating further crimp
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and it's not clear when it will be resolved. >> kate kelly thank you. do you have a flashlight, pack of matches, what do you have with you? >> reporter: we have our phones and car headlights, that's about it. we'll have sunrise soon. >> does the blackberry, are you able to turn that on like a flashlight? >> i've used it as a flashlight. >> reporter: there's an iphone app for that. i don't have that. >> i just hit the buttons and used it to look around in the dark. >> reporter: i've also been using my gasbuddy app, and in the bronx it was about $4.35 for regular yesterday. >> wow. >> your gas buddy, that must be another iphone app. >> reporter: it is, you plug in your zip code and it tells you where gas is available. that's where the big question is now, it used to be where you get
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a best price. >> you've got joe on board now, kate. >> wow. who needs a keyboard. thank you, kate. we're not going to chairs? >> we're doing it from here. >> okay. you know, at the risk of just, i mean people, it's an inconvenient truth came out six years ago and to me it's amazing that the dogma -- >> the cover of "business week" this week says it's global warming, stupid. that's the headline. >> and governor cuomo talked about it's happening he thinks because of global warming and climate change. >> yesterday in the "wall street journal" "hurricanes and human choice." sandy was terrible but we're currently in a relative hurricane drought, connecting energy, policy and disasters make little scientific sense. even the ipcc in its latest
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report would never -- you know, they act like scientists occasionally even though most climate science is junk science, they even would never tie an event ike this to climate change. here's the thing that i pointed out to you, andrew, the last category 3 hurricane was wilma, that was seven years ago. this is the longest period in a century in terms of how long we've been between category 3. back in 1954, between august '54 and august of 1955, the east coast saw three different storms make landfall each of which caused twice as much damage as sandy. now you weren't born in 1954. it caused twice as much. here's the chart of the average global temperature and this quietly was reported by the uk climate office. that shows the average variability from 14 degrees celsius which is the average.
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there's the no discernible rise in 16 years. >> cuomo's point he was trying to stay out of the controversial subject. he said the political ban derte doesn't want to get to. his question is should new york be prepared for flooding. maybe this is a situation talked about yesterday we're building in areas we shouldn't be building in. >> the storm that caused $180 billion in damage. >> lafrack is saying maybe there are areas -- >> is that not true? >> there's variability, andrew, 1,500 years ago the whole world was hotter than it is today but you don't see that reported either. >> is your argument we're not creating the climate change? >> i'm saying there's variability in the models, even the models that we had, they're
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already -- >> there are changes in the world. the question is what causes it. >> that's always the question. when we come back, we'll talk more about new york getting back to business. patience is starting to wear thin in some areas, power, mass transit, traffic, all slowly getting back to what some people would call normal but things are still out of whack. we'll get a live report from scott cohn after this.
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good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. the futures this morning are
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indicated -- sorry, i almost said my name again. take a look at the futures, the s&p futures are slightly lower as are the dow futures, nasdaq futures are slightly higher but again as trading got back under way, things were calm, it was collective, it was a very calm opening to things so that's all good news. let's look at some of the other morning headlines today. as investors recover from the effects of hurricane sandy they are looking ahead to key data on jobs ahead of tomorrow's october jobs report. ahead of that we'll get adp's monthly report on private sector report at 8:15 eastern time. the labor department's initial jobless claims at 8:30 eastern time. we have the latest sales numbers from u.s. automakers that are coming in today. the industry is expected to report an annual sales rate of $14.9 million for october, the best october performance in five years. by the way, still more key numbers ahead today, the institute for supply management will issue its monthly
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manufacturing index, a widely watched indicator and that is due at 10:00 eastern so the market will have a lot to trade on today. >> he was back to business on wall street as investors look to put the trauma of hurricane sandy behind them and we had the same kind of result, too, we were up 70, 60 pre-market and when it was all said and done we got nowhere. october was an awful month for the stock market and closed down ten points. scott cohn is in manhattan, you're back to business, aren't you, scott? you're not standing in the with aer, are you? look at you, dry, warm. >> reporter: yep -- yeah, right. the markets are back in business, joe, but everything around them is a mess. here's the story in lower manhattan. yeah, i'm in water, there's lots and lots of water, that water is being pumped out of 15-story building morning that, next to here and that's the start of the story.
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this is why the financial district is not going to be back to normal any time soon. the restaurant best of new york food, they've been in business for 20 years. they may be done. take a look inside, $100,000 worth of just lost food, about $250,000 they think in infrastructure damage, none of it covered by insurance. they're not sure if they're going to be able to recover from this. this they do, it will take them several months to reopen. perry's restaurant, an institution in lower manhattan, they got four feet of water in their basement and in their building. they are trying to recover. it's not going to be open any time soon there either, but new york is very much a tale of two cities right now. the traffic uptown is epic and that is why yesterday new york city mayor michael bloomberg announced new yorkers will have to get used to something they may not be used to, and that is the carpool.
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>> i've ordered that the four east river bridges be restricted to high occupancy vehicles only, tonight, coming into to manhattan, meaning three or more people per vehicle all day on thursday and all day on friday from 6:00 a.m. to midnight. >> reporter: the reports are that they are very strictly enforcing that three person to a vehicle limit. as a result traffic is jammed up badly coming into manhattan so even though they had those vehicle restrictions, it is going to take people a long time to get into work. we're also told that there was a rush of people trying to get into the city before 6:00 a.m., a lot of them did not do it. the one good thing that's going for the city now is that some of the mass transit is back, the subways uptown where there's power, they are back. some of the commuter railroads have come back, though not entirely, and there is bus service down here in lower manhattan, but there is a really
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desperate situation going on here as the city tries to get back in business, and as more people try and make their way in, they're going to continue to be sort of backing and filling and also trying to get the water out. becky? >> scott, thank you very much. obviously a lot of problems and probably more to come as we see more people heading back into the city. again, scott cohn in lower manhattan. we'll check back in with you later this morning. in the meantime, joining us for the remainder of the joe is julian robertson, founder of tiger management and emile henry of henry tiger llc, former assistant treasury secretary under president bush and economic adviser to the romney campaign. gentlemen we thank you for being with us today. it's difficult times for a lot of people on the east coast and we're trying to get our hands around things. we're starting to get some numbers. today we'll have the adp numbers and tomorrow the jobs report. people are trying to figure out
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what the economy looks like right now. julian and emile for both of you where do you think the situation stands in terms of what the economy looks like and what we can expect over the next few months? >> well i think the economy has, is going along fairly well. so many people it seems to me are really worried about europe and a lot of other macro problems in the world, and our own fiscal problems that they've almost gotten their portfolios in too bearish a situation, in a situation where the only way they can succeed is for catastrophe, and that's probably one of the most powerful things about our market is that people, some people are situated that
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way. but we seem to be, europe seems to be getting a little bit better, and i still think there's a good chance that we will get together and solve our fiscal problems. they're certainly solvable. >> i'd certainly hope so, too. i hope there is some solution to that. emile, what do you see right now? >> i see an extraordinarily tepid recovery in the u.s. if you look at us versus say the reagan recovery, three years into the reagan recovery, employment or gdp growth was between 7% and 8%. there was 700,000 to 800,000 jobs being created per month and so this recovery is essentially a jobless recovery, if you look at the job numbers, it is a zero job recovery. so i think this is a very tepid
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recovery and you know i'm a big advocate of mitt romney and i have every confidence if we get him elected on tuesday and looks like he has a really good chance at this point. the numbers are looking quite good. i think you'll see an extraordinary turnaround. >> do you think his momentum has been slowed by sandy and some of the changes i've seen. there were some people i saw speculating about this yesterday. how does this change in. >> i don't know. i know there's been extraordinary momentum since the first debate, you see it in every poll, in every set of numbers. the candidates essentially haven't campaigned for the last few days and rightly so, so maybe that's a pause in the momentum but typically the candidate -- i've been involved in a number of races. typically the candidate that has this kind of moment numb this kind of an economy and lastly is the right person for the times. have you ever seen a man more uniquely suited for the times
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than a turnaround guy like mitt romney, where this is essentially what our economy needs. >> you just compared the tepid growth to '80 '81, and we talk about reinhardt and the question we should be comparing this to the great depression. is that a fair comparison? >> there is some legitimacy to the argument. this is what paul krugman likes to talk about every time someone talks about tepid recovery. the reality is -- and whether that's right or wrong, the reality is that when president obama came into office, the one thing that he really didn't do, other than what many would call a failed keynesian stimulus is didn't focus on the economy. here's a quick story julian and i heard at one point from former secretary of state jim baker, who worked for ronald reagan.
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ronald reagan came into office and baker i believe at that point was his chief of staff, he organized a meeting on foreign policy, and other items. after the meeting, ronald reagan turned to him and said, for the next 100 days of my presidency, that will be the last meeting we have on that. all we're going to focus on is the recovery and this economy. that's clearly what this president did not do. >> julian, there are people like roger altman they think no matter who is elected we'll be looking at a better economy in the next four years. you sound like you're more in that camp but i don't want to put words in your mouth. >> well, i think mitt romney is uniquely qualified to lead us through that, and i think president obama will do a better job than he's done so far, but he really hasn't had the training, i mean, and he has
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never been successful in getting really much accomplished, and i really believe mitt romney would be much better on that i think he's the man for this job right now, and i believe he's going to get it. >> i guess in terms of getting things accomplished for the obama campaign has pointed to things like health care, they've pointed to detroit to the turnaround and your point is jobs and the economy has been where they have not done enough? >> well, they've taken romney's health care plan in massachusetts and taken it national, which romney would never have done and doesn't believe in. but i don't know that they've done very much. the auto thing is going along
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fine. i think there's a very good argument to be made that if those companies had been allowed to go through a normal type of bankruptcy, they would be in better shape today than they are. >> and i would just add to that, so julian is one of the great investors of our time. i run an investment firm. the one thing that investors like to see and must see before capital really flows is certainty as opposed to uncertainty, so just if you think through the steps that this president took when he came into office, at almost every turn, and i know i'm partisan but at almost every turn he created uncertainty, right, so obama care creates great uncertainty about will people keep their health insurance, where will costs go, can you invest in health care? dodd-frank put a complete chill on lending because of the uncertainty. tax policy, if you talk to any tax expert, really what you need are not temporary tax cuts,
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because no investor, no businessperson makes decisions based on the next few months, but you need a permanency and certainty. >> we will have certainty no matter what, though, right? when we get through the election, hopefully we have an answer to the fiscal cliff no matter what happens. >> i've actually full confidence if mitt romney gets elected and what i can't understand is anybody who thinks that the president, who said no to bowles-simpson, did nothing vis-a-vis the fiscal cliff, asked for a clean bill attached to the debt ceiling, how anybody thinks he can show some leadership and get that done when he's had four years to do it, i don't understand the logic. >> and he was the man that actually authorized and pushes bowles-simpson and then did nothing with it. >> you don't see romney embracing bowles-simpson at the
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moment either? >> i don't think he's embracing that but i think something similar to bowles-simpson. >> we'll talk more about this. julian and emil will be with us for the rest of the program. if you have comments or questions on "squawk," e-mail us at or follow us on twitter. still to come, we have a live report from seaside heights. folks there trying to clean up after the destruction left behind from sandy. it will be a while before they can get back in the area. the futures at this hour are mixed, but you're not talking about major moves in any direction. the s&p futures are down by about two points, dow futures down by 4.5 and the nasdaq up by just over a point. "squawk" will be back after this quick break. any way you want. fully customize it for your trading process -- from thought to trade, on every screen. and all in real time. which makes it just like having your own trading floor,
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let's check on the markets right now. futures at this point are barely budging right now the s&p futures are down about two points, dow futures barely down, nasdaq futures barely higher. oil prices at least for wti moved up slightly, up about 15 cents. the brent crude numbers down 42 cents and the yield on the ten-year is 1.7%. you can see the dollar is stronger across the board this morning. euro at 1.2949 and the dollar/yen at 80. gold prices up by $5.
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andrew? >> and fizer is reporting third quarter profit of 53 cents per share matching street stilts. revenue was on the light side and the company sees earnings for the year at $2.14 to $2.17 per share, comparing to estimates of $2.21 so it's coming down. pfizer says the shortfall is due to the loss of exclusivity for its cholesterol drug lipitor. time for an update on trains and power outages. jackie deangelis joins us. >> the president toured some of the worst hit areas of the jersey shore saying 2,000 fema personnel are on the ground in affected states. at least 74 people have died in the u.s. as a result of sandy, most of them from new york and new jersey. the number of people without power, that is dropping, though there are still 5.6 million customers left in the dark and it may be ten days or so before the hardest hit areas see power restored. meantime more than 19,000
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flights were canceled because of sandy but stranded passengers they have something to be thankful for and that's that newark and jfk airports were back in business yesterday and delta and american airlines are scheduled to resume a limited number of flights. airlines are waving cancellation and change fees due to the storm. new york subways offering limited service today. and the mta is waving all fares on rail, bus and subway rides through tomorrow. the focus is starting to shift to rebuilding damaged areas. homeowners in new jersey, new york and maryland will not have to pay mrk deductibldeductiblese reimbursement. usually fema only recovers 75% of costs and new jersey which saw the worst of the power outages, governor christie is waving licensing requirements to
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prevent gas stations from buying fuel from out of stale suppliers. the hope is that will boost gasoline and diesel supplies. back over to you. >> thank you, jackie. >> global warming? >> we've got a couple things going on in the set, papers moving around. >> we have been watching earnings, a lot of things because we are starting to get back to business, we are seeing numbers coming at 8:15 we'll be getting adp numbers, just got the pfizer numbers andrew was referencing and still to come more from julian robertson and emi emil henry. "squawk" will be back after a quick break. [ female announcer ] introducing u
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investors will be watching when trading opens this morning including that adp report at 8:15 eastern and then the scenic gas stations around the tri-state area an update on when stations will start reopening and how long the gas lines will get. "squawk box" will be right back. bob...
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oh, hey alex. just picking up some, brochures, posters copies of my acceptance speech. great! it's always good to have a backup plan, in case i get hit by a meteor. wow, your hair looks great. didn't realize they did photoshop here. hey, good call on those mugs. can't let 'em see what you're drinking. you know, i'm glad we're both running a nice, clean race. no need to get nasty.
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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. in the business headlines, costco reporting october same-store sales increase of 7%, slightly above estimates. its international sales increased up 9%, well above
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analyst forecast and hyundai sold more than 412,000 vehicles in october. >> did honda and hyundai merge in. >> what did i say? >> hyundai. >> hun-day, rhymes with sunday. andrew i had to learn this. >> it bounced up from a year earlier. >> hyundai. >> hyundai. here we go, finally software acquired this morning, expected price tag, stock risen 12% yesterday on reports the company might put itself up for sale and it's done more than that. the election five days away. let's turn to our guest hosts, julian robertson and emil henry.
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henry, tiger, llc, former assistant treasury secretary under president bush and economic adviser to the romney campaign. does it matter, how can the election here possibly determine what goes on in either china or europe, which are obviously very important too, to us, emil? >> china is one of the many pillars of governor romney's plan is to call china a currency manipulator. >> does that bother you in terms of raising the specter? >> no, there are many bright people on both sides of this but it doesn't and it doesn't for the very reason that it is, one, it is absolutely not in china's interest to have a trade war. it's not in their interest economically and it's not in their interest politically. remember these are, and this is where we get into geopolitical strategizing which is out of my realm of expertise for sure but this is holding on to power for
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a group of very few is a very important element. >> now you sound like you could be talking about the federal reserve in both cases. is ben bernanke a currency manipulator? >> that's grist for a broader conversation. >> we can't trash them if we're doing the same here. >> is ben bernanke sitting in his office attempting to manipulate the currency, no. in my judgment. but is the fed's dual mandate which requires the task of full employment by a central bank is that a proper thing for the central bank, not in my judgment. >> does romney follow through on his threat or is that politics in. >> for bernanke? >> i don't know. i know that chairman bernanke is up in 2014 and i don't know how that will pan out. i wouldn't presume. >> china, day one, does he do it? >> i take governor romney at his word.
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i've known him for a long time and take him at his word. i might expect the chinese to preempt or preclude something like that because of the impact. >> people worry about austerity globally and if we combine austerity here with protectionism and people that think governor romney would be fairly big cutter of a lot of things in this country which most people would argue we need to do at 25% of gdp but you combine all these things together you're talking about a heck of a lot of negative factors coming together for growth. how do you get 4% growth when you're sort of raising the protectionist flag and you're also cutting a lot of government spending. it's tough to get 4% growth. you can unleash, is that what unleashed the private sector, julian, do you think? >> 4% growth would certainly unleash -- >> can we unleash it by cutting and by, you know, starting a trade war with china? >> well, i think a trade war with china might very well in all seriousness help a lot of
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our industry here. >> that's an interesting take. >> the chinese are much more exporters than they are importers, and if they were hurt, i don't think that would necessarily hurt us. >> i thought they were just exporting cheap goods to help us here in this country. that's not it? >> to your point to growth, this is the most important piece of the -- >> solves a lot of things, solves the cuttings, solves everything. >> we could talk about this later if you have to go on to other folks but the policy levers to create growth are fiscal, monetary and trade and tax and regulatory. those are your policy levers. you've ticked through each one for president obama on regulatory, he has chilled growth, right? fiscal policy with $16 trillion in debt and trillion-dollar
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deficits every year, that's a chill on growth. tax policy has been complete uncertainty on his part, monetary policy you might argue that what chairman bernanke has done, you might argue that has helped growth at the margin or preserved jobs at margin at the risk of inflation. >> in a perfect world what do you think we could have been at? >> normalized i think a normal recovery, maybe if there's truth to what paul krugman talks about, maybe it's not 8% but it's 6%, 7%. you need 200 to 300,000 jobs a month to create the kind of jobs, 12 million jobs that mitt romney is talking about and that's, should be relatively easily doable. >> 2011 was slower than 2010 and 2012 will be slower than 2011, and we're starting at what just over 2%.
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i think it's horrible. i was trying with him but he just, i give up. there was five points he just gave me. he's right. you have to take the ball because i've thrown everything in a handout. he totally convinced me. i'm not even arguing. >> you were on the other side of this before. >> initially when i was trying to nail him on the protectionist stuff but here is the baton. >> we're going to come back to both of these gentlemen and we will attempt it. >> i might have had a little bit of empathy for his viewpoint earlier. maybe i wasn't totally. >> he talks a tough game. >> you didn't buy it though. >> no -- >> you did? >> they're all very good questions, more things we need to talk about. we're continuing to watch what's been happening on the jersey coast throughout new york as sandy and the aftereffects are being dealt with. new jersey governor chris christie and the president touring the jersey coastline yesterday asking for patience from residents to figure out how and when they can begin the
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recovery process. >> the level of devastation at the jersey shore is unthinkable, and we know that there are many people who own homes, who we've evacuated who will want to get back onto the island to assess the damage otheir homes. we are nowhere near being able to let you back onto the island. >> cnbc's kayla tausche is in toms river. just the other side of seaside heights where the governor is talking about not allowing people to come back for a great amount of time. you've been talking to responders what, is the situation? >> reporter: it's certainly one picking up just a little bit as the sun is starting to come up. where we stand on highway 37, also known as little league world champions boulevard for the string of little league world series title. toms river on this side of the bridge was once known. most of the town is flooded, residents using jet skis to check on neighbors and thousands remain at local shelters.
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just this morning going from toms river and this side of the jersey coast over to seaside heights it's been a veritiable rushhour, police, ambulances, national guard and gas trucks heading over to assess the damage and continue the search and rescue efforts. one of the biggest problems are gas leaks, some of the houses get demolished and some of the foundations are floating away, leaving exposed gas lines and that's one of the biggest problems and gas trucks are on their way to combat that. i'm told more than 100 trucks of emergency types were deployed just at sunrise this morning across the barrier islands. there are roughly 2,000 fema officials who remain on hand to assess the situation and figure out how they can help residents. residents calling fema first because that's where they think they can get the most immediate assistance. many people not able to hear how their properties are doing because so many people who are full time residents as well as
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vacationers on some of these properties are in shelters or can't access them and so they really don't know what to ask for claims for, what to call their insurance companies about, and that's one of the big situations that we're seeing here as well. of course governor christie as you noted said the officials are nowhere near letting people back on the island at this point. christie and president obama yesterday committed to providing immediate funds to get people's power back on, that's the very first priority and then getting people back to school and back to work, which has yet to happen. so hopefully we're the steam picks up here as the day goes on. more people out and about, more search and rescue continuing. i'm told over the last couple days alone more than 400 people have been rescued from the barrier islands and brought to shelter inland. >> getting the power on will be a big issue but aside from that when you've had sea water washed in five, six, eight feet it's going to be dangerous to turn on any of the power connections.
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you don't know what will blow out because of corrosion factors. that must be part of what they're dealing with. >> reporter: becky that's the big problem with all the fires we're seeing, people are wondering if a house is nearly underwater how does it catch on fire isaa roof's not underwater so if you have a generator on or if you have a gas leak those things are highly flammable and so that's what's starting a lot of these fires and they spread quickly here because you can't access these areas to actually put them out so gas a big issue and power a big issue. when you get hurricanes normally they're during the summer. you don't worry about it being cold. people are still in their houses, those situations can become dire the longer that they go on. >> kayla, sounds like a huge mess they are just starting to tackle. thank you. we'll see you in a little bit. coming up famed analyst mary meeker turned partner at kleiner perkins, looking for the next big thing in tech. and a man who has seen his share of devastating storms, former
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welcome back, everybody. we are looking for trade just to be normal today as it was yesterday. we've been watching the futures ahead of that and they have barely budged this morning. dow futures down just about 1.5 and s&p down 1.5 and s&p up by 2 points. 8:15 we get the adp report which could give us an indication of what to expect from the big jobs report tomorrow. america's rising deficit and debt levels have reached alarming heights only expected to get worse. our next guest is urging taxpayers to start thinking of themselves as shareholders in a debt laden corporation that she called usa inc. joining us from palo alto, mary meeker getting up early. we appreciate it. you're more of a vc firm kind of perkins and mary we appreciate it, formerly morgan stanley. before we get to your report which is fascinating and i know you just updated it we talk about what's going on in the
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valley here and facebook in particular and what that ipo has meant and i wanted to get your thoughts. >> good morning. thanks for having me. i think things are abuzz in silicon valley. innovation is alive and well. lot of young entrepreneurs are reimagining the way many things we've known for many years can be reconstructed and rebuilt in effect using the internet, using mobile phones, using the applications. you look at companies like cherry, reimagining car washes, bringing car washes to you, air b&b, allowing people to find places to stay around the world, waves, a traffic navigation app, a whole host of companies. one of the things i think is interesting about this time is we've had a very difficult economic time and we have a lot of young entrepreneurs who are, where it's a difficult time to get a job and they're thinking hey, i'll take the risk. i can get capital, i'll create a
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new idea and new business. that's number one. number two, mobile connectivity is growing rapidly, 5 billion mobile phone users in the world and only a billion smartphone users in the world, and tablet growth is really just start so long we have a lot of good underpinnings. on your point -- >> mary, i wanted to ask you on the facebook point. >> yep, go ahead. >> seemingly felt like a failure to many, and really i think changed the valuations for some of these companies including we've seen what's happened to zynga and others. how has that affected the mind-set out there? >> a couple things. private market valuations or private company valuations are materially higher on a relative basis than public company valuations so it really hasn't impacted the young entrepreneurs who are starting companies yet. that may happen at some point. on facebook regarding the ipo one of ilessons we learned over and over again about public markets is when something is too good to be true or when
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everybody thinks something is going to happen oftentimes it doesn't. >> isn't there something weird that the private valuations sore much higher than the public valuations and how ultimately do those private valuations get monetized because there has to be some form of an exit, whether it's an m&a transaction or an ipo? >> you used the word "weird" and i think that's a fair characterization. ultimately it will reset, but the reality is the market opportunities for a lot of these companies are so big that people are willing to place the bet and fund them, as an investor in these private companies. i wish valuations were a lot lower than they are but they aren't, so we have to be selective about where we invest and focus on let's make sure we have a diverse portfolio of companies because our ability to lose money given the valuations is certainly high. >> mary, you have a report out, you wrote it last year, just updated it, you talked about it last week for the first time in san francisco, and it really does urge taxpayers to think of
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this country and themselves as shareholders. i don't know if it's so much of a political document as it is just laying out the facts, but as the facts are, where they are, do you have a political view in terms of where you're going to vote next tuesday? >> well, one question i would ask is that, our country has a negative 60% net margin so we've only made money in five out of the last 47 years as a country, not that we're supposed to make money but we should be close to break even more often than not. when you look at it, when you look at where your tax dollars go, 56% of your tax dollars last year went to entitlements, 20% to defense, 18% to other things like infrastructure and education and the question i would have is, when you pay your taxes at the end of the year wouldn't it be interesting if you could allocate where your tax dollars went. many of us would not allocate them the way they are. assume we have to pay them in the first place which we
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certainly do. i think mitt romney has a great plan. i know him. i like him. i think he could be a great leader for this country. i like the way he is thinking about the deficit, reducing the deficit as one of his top priorities and encouraging growth in small businesses and i think he'll lay out if elected he'll lay out a framework, have transparency on the pros, cons and gives people an opportunity to help make the right choices to move forward. >> joe is giving me a hard time as you're talking. >> no, i was kidding andrew, i was going -- >> how can anybody give you a hard time. >> i'm like, cut her off, wrong answer. why did you go there? >> no, i didn't, i wanted to know -- the sentiment in the valley could be changing. am i wrong on that? >> look, everyone is entitled to their own opinion and barack obama according to the polls is going to win california and as he should. there are a lot of supporters. he's a great individual, but i
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think at the margin when people are focused on small business and growth and opportunities for small business entrepreneurs and reducing regulation i think people do think about different options. >> do you worry about regulation in the tech sector? one of its last industries that probably doesn't have nearly the same regulation as many of the other industries. >> as i sit here today, i don't worry about it, but one of the things i worry about is, one of the areas of investment we're excited about spending more time on is what i call the asset light generation and if you look at the fact that you can walk out your apartment door in the morning, with your smartphone and your tablet, and you've got, in effect have cash on your phone, your media library on the phone, you can get news and information, a taxi, all sorts of things, a hotel room, i think one of the things i worry about is the regulation of some of these companies that are putting
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people to work in an unregulated way. they're not unionized. people are getting jobs and opportunities on applications and if that business remains somewhat unregulated it will become vibrant. it is unsettling to incumbent players in the marketplace, and we'll see how that plays out and i hope it remains relatively loose and i think in many ways because many of those things are local services, it will be up to the local mayors and governors to make sure in their states things are regulated somewhat but loosely to get these businesses off the ground. >> we've had angel investors on and most of them say, we ask them, could you start a business today like they did 10 or 20 years ago, we have a lot of people write in saying these are start-ups are a little bit different in terms of a business that's up and running and starts worrying about adding employees and health care and everything
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else. those are the ones that, is that fair to say, mary, that a medium stage company would have much more trouble than a startup, so they're not really exposed the things that these intermediate staged companies are exposed. >> it's a great point and i'd make two observations. one a 25-year-old entrepreneur who is starting a business oftentimes has no fear and doesn't know what he or she doesn't know, and it's one of the reasons they're able to create great businesses. but when you have a group of folks under 30, they're not thinking about necessarily health care, social security, medicare, medicaid, unionization, and those things, and as they get bigger, one of the things we've certainly seen in california with companies that need to build call centers, for example, they look at the taxes in the state of california and they say, hmm, maybe texas is better, maybe utah is better. so as they grow maybe above 300, 400 employees it becomes a bigger issue.
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>> mary we have to run in a sec. but green energy has a number in that sector. role of government in that part of the world tha, that sector i >> thank you for asking the question. i focus on digital investments so i will leave it at that. >> that's like a pseudo no comment. mary we appreciate your time this morning. usa inc. is the report, it's absolutely worth reading and we appreciate you getting up early. >> thanks, good luck in new york. >> thanks, absolutely. when we come back former florida governor jeb bush on the fiscal cliff, the economy and hurricane recovery efforts. obviously he knows a thing or two what it's like to try to come back after one of the storms comes through. up next a live report on a growing problem across the storm ravaged northeast, the search for gasoline. you can see the lines, already huge lines at the few gas stations that are open. "squawk" will be right back. if you think running a restaurant is hard, try running four.
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yeah, we're going to get to that in just a second. you got all that answer through you. she wanted you to mention that -- >> her usa inc. mary meeker's report, you get it online on dealbook and and this way everybody can read what she
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has to say go to first. >> are you going to work in "too big to fail." that's still available in book stores. >> fill it up and go to somewhere and barnes & noble if possible. you're terrible. many gas stations in the new jersey area are closed but the ones that are open are attracting plenty of attention and on the garden state parkway motorists were backed up miles, the wait at some gas stations is an hour if not longer. mary tomp sn is the one i pass every morning coming and going, the vince lombardi rest stop on the new jersey turnpike which i noticed yesterday and i thought you know what? if i had to do it i think i could do it. is it more than a half hour now? >> reporter: i would say probably 45 minutes, joe. you can see the lines behind me. what you can't see is how far they stretch back probably to the freeway entrance and
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possibly beyond that. no wonder the manager of the station says they have doing triple their normal business. with power out a lot of new jersey stations can't open, and some that are open are only selling diesel as they're out of regular glass lean. in long island the gasoline retailers association says less than half of its 600 members have gas and power and in new york and emergency, shell says a third of its branded stations are damaged from the storm and without power. towns across the state filled with anxious residents who can't find gasolines for the generators keeping their lights on or gasoline for their cars keeping the cars running. here's one new jersey man's gasoline odyssey. >> i'm coming from paris in new jersey. i work in staten island but yesterday going home i was very low on gas so i stop and then park first and after an hour and
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a half to two hours waiting, i got to the gas station, unfortunately out of gas, there was no more gas. >> reporter: so he was here this morning. now along with power outages at the retail station, there are also power outages at the storage terminals in new jersey so that means the gasoline that's in those terminals can't be delivered to the stations. in addition the port of new york and new jersey is closed so gas can't be imported through that port, it has to go through alternatives and trucked in. in order to provide some relief, governor chris christie has waived basically a rule that prevents gasoline stations here in new jersey from buying gas from out of state dealers so that should provide some relief for residents. nevertheless, the relief isn't expected to come any time soon. expect some gas lines for a few days to come. if there's any good news, prices here at the vince lombardi station are only about five cents above the national average. typically new jersey has very low gas prices so they haven't been moving higher in light of
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this supply shortage. joe? becky? andrew, back to you. >> okay, mary, thank you. very good work with the mike, too, mary. >> reporter: i held onto it this time. >> it happened once and i don't think it will ever happen again probably, that's how quickly. >> reporter: no, it never will. i have a vice-like grip on it. >> excellent, see you later. still to come, former florida governor jeb bush joins us at the top of the hour and 8:15, the adp report on private sector jobs, coming up here on "squawk."
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the road to recovery, picking up the pieces from sandy, updates on the repairs to public transit and the effort to restore power to millions of homes. we're going to talk emergency management and politics with former florida governor jeb bush and investing with hedge fund titan tom styre. and an early read on tomorrow's private jobs report. adp payroll report at 8:15 eastern and initial jobless claims and third quarter productivity orders at 8:30 a.m. the third hour of "squawk box" begins right now.
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>> welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business worldwi worldwide. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. our guests today julian anderson and emil henry, a former assistant treasury secretary. would you abe full treasury secretary in the romneyed asnrgs. >> if the president asks me i'm a traditionalist, you listen but i'm focused on my business. >> just occurred to me assistant next move would be full. anyway, but i girdigress. the update from superstorm sandy. they always make us say that. >> i think there's confusion as to call it a hurricane or not. when you have the death toll rising like we've seen. >> you don't want to say things
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like that but the questions are whether it's a hurricane or not and new york the government is pushing back saying -- >> it was three storms or at least two. >> pushing back on the insurers saying you can't take these hurricane, the deductibles because this was not a hurricane when it hit new york shores. that's a big deal for a lot of home and businesses. >> wow. lot of time there's wind versus flood, they parse the difference. >> wind versus water. >> and some of the hurricane deductibles were 1% to 5% of the value of the home so that's he a big deal and issue. residents in new york city are without power, tensions are starting to run high. residents are struggling to fuel their cars and get to work. scott cohn joins us from lower manhattan. >> reporter: hi, becky. here we are in water street in the financial district where there's no power and look, no
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traffic. now take a look uptown, i want to show you a video of the approach to the george washington bridge, for those of you not from here, that's the major route into manhattan from the west. there are vehicle restrictions, three people or more to a vehicle, no less than three people. you can't get into manhattan, and there are also apparently some confusion about where those restrictions take place and whether they apply to people coming in from the george washington bridge. nonetheless all of the other approaches into manhattan that are open, there are checkpoints and you can see that those checkpoints are causing traffic jams in themselves so we are looking at now epic commutes. that idea of the so-called hov restrictions, that was supposed to reduce the gridlock in the city, and downtown indeed there's no traffic at all, but part of the problem is that people can't get here. so this is an issue that we're
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dealing with as this day progresses, and i can tell you that still downtown here, they're pumping water out of buildings. i am a good almost half a mile from the east river. the water when sandy hit was about up to here. the water is off of the streets but still in the basements of the buildings. the traffic is bad. this city is to put it bluntly, a mess. guys? >> scott, thank you very much. scott was indicating that that water was up to about chest or at least to waist level and that is going to take a long time to dig out. >> have we figured out you need three people even on the george washington bridge? >> i don't know. >> we should find out. there's been debate whether the gw is separate from everything else. >> okay, so again there are all kinds of restrictions, you see the traffic jams that are already snarling up. we will have more on the impact of sandy throughout the morning. right now joe you're looking at numbers from exxon? >> exxon is reporting $2.09 a
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share which is if you assumed delusion it's a decrease of 2% from the year ago number, but that's still above expectations, which were $1.95. exxon goes on to say that equaled 9.57 billion and there were many quarters in the past where exxon where we pointed out they made more than $10 billion so this is 9.570. oil equivalent production decreased 7.5% from the third quarter, but if you exclude the impact of entitlement volumes, opec quota effects it only decreased 2.9%. there's been share repurchases reduced, the shares outstanding by 5 billion, and the dividend per share of 57 cents increased 21% from the year ago period, i don't know if it's happening right now. remember for a while we didn't
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attempt to compare the revenue number and they don't, i don't -- >> there was a limited number of analysts who give an estimate for revenue so it's not always anywhere close to where the number comes in at. >> where do we see it trading? >> i don't know, but i it look at the other deductible. i can tell you just on the -- look down lower. >> a little bit about 37 cents or so, and then there's upstream, downstream, natural gas people look at but overall looks like a little bit down from last year. upstream earnings were 633 million, that was 551 million lower than the third quarter of 2011. >> we talked about the hurricane deductibles -- which new york has said will not apply in this situation because it was not hurricane winds when it hit the state of new york, apparently that's also the situation with new jersey and maryland. >> this you'll love. >> those two states are saying
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no hurricane deductibles in the situation. >> downstream earnings 3.19 billion up 1.6 billion from the third quarter. >> wow. >> mainly reflecting better margin and refining. governor romney making one final push in florida with the election only five days away. campaigning yesterday was prominent florida republicans including former florida governor jeb bush, joins us now, of all the swing states, governor, florida seems to be one where the romney campaign is feeling pretty good. is that still the case? can you hear us now, governor bush? we'll be back to him in a second, make sure we check our audio. i can tell, when i was staying up in florida he was going like that and i don't think he meant no. i realized then probably the
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ifp -- >> quick programming note on the bridge issue that we discussed before, only the three-person rule only applies to the henry hudson bridge, lincoln tunnel, triboro, queens boro, anything below 63rd street. coming on the george washington street, harlem river bridge you do not need to have three people. >> which is probably why you see long traffic lines at the gw bridge, that is an issue and why we've seen so much. the hurricane deductibles, new jersey is saying when it hit the shore in new jersey that it was a post tropical cyclone. gentlemen you watch business, what does that mean for the insurance companies if you start to take a look at some of these things? >> it's amazing. i mean, and i guess that definition of 1-mile-an-hour difference is vital here. >> big bucks in terms of the insurers. we'll keep an eye on the
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insurance stocks. >> julian, real quick question. there was a story about two months ago that said you tried to hire -- >> we'll return. we're going to go to jeb bush. >> you know where i was going. >> governor bush, can you hear us now, sir? >> i sure can. >> okay, great. first thing i said and i'll tell you, it was kind of funny because you couldn't hear, i was saying out of all the swing states it looks like florida is one that the romney campaign feels pretty good about and you were going like that, that you couldn't hear and i was saying oh, my god, i don't think he can hear so that was not a no. florida, how do you handicap it right now, governor? >> i think it's close but i do believe that the intensity is on governor romney's side. it will be a close election but i think romney will prevail. >> you have seen what the east coast is dealing with, and i remember katrina but i also remember andrew and the power that that packed. you weren't governor way back then but florida has seen its
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share of this activity. what can you tell us, make us feel better or to know that sooner or later they will come back from this? >> well we had eight hurricanes and four tropical storms in 14 months, over $100 billion of damage, and i have powerful memories rushing through my body, just watching governor christie and cuomo and all of these great governors putting aside all their other duties and focusing on the immediate response and recovery that's going on, and there's a lot of lessons learned when you go through these things and getting power back on is important. working in a coordinated way is important, staying focused on it, not overpromising. there's a lot of -- it's interesting to see how the governors and mayors are responding to this. my guess is that next week it's going to look better than it does today. there will be conflicts related to the difference between wind and flood and how the insurance plays out but i'm more than
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hopeful i'm absolutely confident that there will be a quick recovery. >> was that -- what year was that, governor, that you were talking about? >> 2004 and 2005. one after another. >> then there was kind of you wouldn't call it a pause but people forget that we haven't had a category 3 hit since katrina, and that's the first time in 100 years that it's gone seven years without a category three. we're under the impression that these are, that we're in like a hurricane epidemic when in fact it's not true, right? >> that's right. plus we are much more densely populated on the coast than we were 100 years ago, 50 years ago, 25 years ago, and i would say looking at the storm damage in the northeast, it's a reminder that our infrastructure is old. it's something that as a nation
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we need to really focus on in terms of density of our populations as well as the infrastructure we have needs to be fixed. it's just old. >> do you ever have an election coming up in five days when power is not going to be back on in ten? >> yeah, we had it in 2004, and we got the national guard out and we put tents out, we had generators. we did not cancel, delay the election. it was a lot of work because it was also in the primary where we did have a slight delay i think in the primary race but the general election went on without a hitch. it just required a massive amount of work by all elements of government. >> well, can you come up here? >> you got good governors up there. you know, watching governor christie in action on tv, it's clear he's all in and i've seen similar in mayor bloomberg and governor cuomo. people step up. this is what leadership's all
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about, and you can't do this from washington. i hear people talk about how kind of demanding the president do something. the president did what he did yesterday. that's about the extent to which he can play a role, and that's to be consoler-in-chief and make sure the federal government doesn't screw up, i guess, but basically this is a local and state responsibility. the federal government can provide financial support. >> governor, we've been just talking about the hurricane deductible, apparently the states of new york, new jersey and maryland are saying that hurricane deductibles which can be anywhere from 1% to 5% for the value of a homeowner that will not apply in this situation, they say it was not a hurricane when it touched shore on any of those states. you probably have experience with dealing with some of the issues, too, what do you think of this? >> it looked like a hurricane to me. i'm not an expert on whether it's, when it stops being a hurricane. look, you're going to -- there's a price to pay, i know this
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after the fact, you can't manipulate insurance markets and expect the insurance markets to be strong. so in the case of florida, what we ended up having was, we had a catastrophic fund, reinsurance fund on top of our insurance. basically we created a quasi-government entity that ended up being the insurer of first resort for a while. that's not necessarily a good thing. i would caution governors to make sure that they don't create a situation where they dry up the entire private insurance market which plays a role, not just in residential but in commercial as well. >> governor, real quick, fema, the role of fema, been politicized in the context of the most recent storm. do you have a view? >> you know, fema is an agency, a coordinating agency. people are surprised that the number of employees there. they don't have that many employees. it's run by a talentedify who
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went through those eight hurricanes and four tropical storms with me, craig fugate and they're doing their job, i'm sure. but there should not be high expectations that fema is delivering the water and ice and making sure that gasoline gets to the gas stations and that there's power, utilities power up. that's the job of local mayors and governors of each state. >> all right, is that just me? we're taking it? governor, we're taking a little hit in our audio as well. we have technical things. we have the adp employment report coming up with mark zandi going to bring us, too, we've never had this before, and want to make sure at 8:15 we get to that. we appreciate your time today very much, governor, thank you. >> thank you. >> as joe mentioned we are a few seconds away from the adp employment report. steve liesman and mark zandi join us now. the first one was delayed by a
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day because of the storm so it's thursday. >> actually not because of the storm, it was delayed because they were supposed to ring the bell down there and speak special one time on thursday, and the number is the new adp report 158,000 for the month of october, this is the first time they've released this under the new methodology and september the number a lot of people became aware of yesterday which was originally printed at 88,000 under the new methodology revised to 114,000. let's look at the breakdown by sectors, goods producing up 14,000, what is interesting you'll see in a second it's not manufacturing. it is construction. services up 144,000, the non-farm payroll estimate, that includes government and private is 125,000. so looks like a little room for some upward adjustment in the market's expectations of the private sector but not a whole lot. my guess given what i've read about the skepticism regarding this, i think it's well placed skepticism, everything looks good when you back test it and a lot of things don't look so good
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once you go live but the stuff did look better when you looked at it back ten years. let's bring in mark zandi, chief economist at moody's analytics. >> no confidence? >> i don't get paid to have confidence in new things, i get paid to have confidence in old things. >> track record. >> adp was back tested the old method allege. whatever happens it's different. tell us how confident you are in the number? >> i'm pretty confident. we've done a lot of hard work, brought in 400,000 companies participating. >> compared to what? >> 344,000. 23 million employees recovered under this new methodology. >> versus how many before? >> 21 million. >> you didn't used to do it this way when you would give us your friday estimate. sometimes you were really good and sometimes like everybody sometimes you were way too positive or off by a lot. is this different than your own personal thing? this is a whole new thing in. >> yeah, this is completely different. >> could make you better. >> i hope so.
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i'm hopeful. >> you finally got used to adp, steve, and sort of you get a feel for where they're wrong and we have to start all over again. >> i'm glad to be an economics reporter because we're looking at private sector data seems to be possibly better than the government data. i had background meetings and talked about some things that may happen, we may get additional data to get more insight into the jobs report. >> different permanently or will the government eventually come to the same number? >> we'll talk about that. >> one quick point. important point is the adp number, the number we're producing is going to be closest to the third bls print. that means bls after the second and third revision. because you know why -- >> that's pretty arrogant. >> no, wait -- >> we'll finally get to -- >> this is why. when bls does the first print,
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tomorrow when they release the number for october they only have 70% of the companies they survey respond so long they need another 30%. >> and you already have it. >> i already have it in the data so our number is already there. >> should we even do tomorrow's number? >> you should do it. >> and the market reacts and the market will pick this up and sense this and know what a better factor it is. >> you will. and steve will. >> let me ask you the most important question, i'm the double blond, did we take the shot of the poker game going on at the table here? what is the ante right now? mark, what does this 158 tell you about the direction of the all important unemployment rate? >> first answer, this is consistent with the job growth we've been getting for the last 3 months, 12 months, 24 months, about 150k is the average, this is very, very consistent with
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this. this says nothing about the unemployment rate. >> if you are adding 160,000, plus or minus private sector jobs to the payroll. >> in a reasonably normal economy, 160k would be enough to bring unemployment down slowly by a tenth or two every three, four, five six months. >> it's a number consistent with growth that would bring down the unemployment rate but given the amount of slack in the economy, given the amount of people looking for additional work, part-time for economic reasons or unemployment or discouraged, these numbers should be quite a bit bigger. >> it's the labor force being buffetted but lots of different things. you had expiring unemployment insurance causing people to leave the labor force but on the other hand if the job market is improving that will cause people to move into the labor force. you have the counterveiling forces and depending how that plays out it could affect the data. >> we have new data, more detail
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on industries. i don't know if we have the chart in the back. they're telling me we have to wrap up quick. construction is down. >> construction is going to lead the way and provide a lot of jobs over the next -- >> it will provide more now because of sandy. >> true. >> what is your outlook on the gdp effects of sandy? >> almost zero. slightly negative and slightly positive. i'm not changing my gdp forecast. >> are we going to see mark twice a month? >> at least if, no th not more. >> are you here tomorrow? >> i'll be on time this time. >> tomorrow. coming up more stocks to watch ahead of the opening bell and same-store sales from a major retailer and exclusive interview with tom steyer, founder of $21 billion hedge fund, joining us at 8:40 a.m. we have more information on the george washington bridge when we come back as well.
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withal come back. retailer target says its october same-store sales were up 2.4%, short of the analyst estimate of a 3.2% increase. target is feeling confident about its plans for the holiday
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shopping season. when we come back, we do have some more jobs data, we'll get initial claims and third quarter productivity numbers coming up at 8:30 a.m. eastern, we'll bring you the numbers and the market reaction as soon as they hit. also an update on the gw bridge. stay right here. une. nobody said an all-in-one had to be bulky. or that you had to print from your desk. at least, nobody said it to us. introducing the business smart inkjet all-in-one series from brother. easy to use, it's the ultimate combination of speed, small size, and low-cost printing.
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we have breaking economic data, a few minutes away from the closely watched weekly jobless claims and third quarter
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welcome back to "squawk box," everyone. we are a few seconds away from
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weekly jobless claims and productivity numbers. rick santelli is in chicago and steve liesman in studio with us. rick why don't we let you take it away so we can get the numbers. >> buzz and the survey says non-farm productivity third quarter preliminary up 1.9, unit labor costs they actually are in the red, that's a good thing, down 0.1. if we look at revisions to both numbers we see our last look was 1.9 so pretty equal on productivity, that number kind of fits in but the drop in unit labor costs is something pretty exciting, up 1.7 our last look. jobless claims 363,000, that is down 9,000 from 372,000, which was originally 369,000, so you can kind of see the way it fits in. it steps only down a bit. it seems to have stabilized from some of the white noise of seasonals, not turned in data a
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couple of weeks ago. continuing claims week in arrears to that number around 3.26 million and people down here still throwing their arms up in the air about adp which is 158 which matches with 16 2, which was 88, revised back to 116 under the new methodology. back to you. >> stick around, we'll talk about this. >> what did he mean by that? >> he was remarking on a story that came out yesterday afternoon which is when we first had the exclusive on adp's new methodology they also printed a revised series from the last ten years including a revised september. some economists yesterday afternoon went on adp's website and figured out it had been there for a week, acted like it was an early release, some folks picked it up on the internet and put it out as if it was an early release, a mistake by adp which it wasn't. the more important thing he's pointing to what was 162 in
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september the original adp was revised down to 88 originally and this morning revised back up to 114 so that's talking about the idea there's the september job growth number was less than we originally thought, although since then the bls has come out, and told us that job growth was 114 on the private sector, so that's the thing we're watching. i don't know that we have any new information here, the market is really going to be chewing on, but i want to make one point about the jobless claims number here which is, this is the last clean one so to speak, if there is a clean number here, from here on out, a lot of the data is going to be affected by the storm and i think what we're talking about here now is this 363, call it 370, it's the new baseline. everything is going to be measured below and above that and the volatility we'll get is almost certainly going to be affected by the storm. >> the election will be over t will be next week. it's not going to matter anyway.
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>> the data will matter despite the election. >> you know what i'm saying. >> we watch every one of these in the context of the election. >> but the other thing is just to be clear, we'll talk about this throughout the day, the friday jobs number, the survey week is before the storm. could you have an up and a down. it could be that the storm doesn't exist in the data because you have this idea it came down, you have all this hiring on the way back up for what will be the survey week which is in about a week or two, people come back on so that could be washed out of the data. we have to look inside it and figure it out and get a feel. so i think what we can do is take a step back and say before sandy it was a 1.5% to 2% economy, we were creating jobs at a 100,000 to 150,000 payrolls a month upclip and jobless claims were in the 370 range and that's our baseline. now we have to judge it off of that. >> i just wanted to say two things to this guest. one is listen closely to what he
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said at the current rate of job creation he said that unemployment might come down 0.1% every six months. >> mark zandi. >> that's 1% every five years, so to get unemployment down to where it should be, 3%, that would be 15 years. that's point one. listen closely what he said, point two is he talked about, we talked about labor participation rate and unemployment. if the labor participation rate, those who actually normally would be seeking jobs were at a normalized level, unemployment would be about 11%. so this is the feeling in the country amidst a kind of -- >> we also know that the participation rate is coming down for two reasons, one is discourage workers leaving the workforce and the other is the aging of the population, people naturally dropping out and the best estimates are that it's about half and half, that you have these people that get to be 55, and they move as a cohort
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into a cohort with less participation. 55 and older you don't work with the same propensity as did you and 65 or older i think, what's the number? >> 55? >> i'm already past there. rick, zandi and the new way, instead of just 70% and saying he probably gets the number after the bls revises it, a couple of times, i was wondering, do people there think this is a better number and does it really matter, is the bls really that great of a number, are any of these numbers anything you can hang onto? ? what's real isn't it. >> adp number kind of started out of obscurity, people started to like it not because it was supposed to mirror the bls number which no number gets new the right place. there will be less people looking at it. it's a swishy number. they don't count heads like the establishment survey. they look at who they did
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business with in their adp check business and try to interplay to a larger amount. let's talk about squishy november 7th and see how the poll will show who wins the election. squishy doesn't get you sometimes where you need to be. >> look that up, squishy. >> talking about the energy problem, i found the renewable resource, the blanket. i'm never going to raise the thermostat above 63 in my house ever again. blanket. >> somebody already did that. >> michael jackson. >> it's a nice one. >> nice and warm and fuzzy. steve, thank you. rick, thank you. >> we used to have nicknames -- blanket is a weird name for a kid. >> i'm baffled by the 63-degree -- >> it's fine when you go to sleep. when you have to take a shower,
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that's no good. >> you weren't just holding this. you were using it to feel warm. >> the blanket in. >> you weren't just carrying it around. >> security thing. coming up he founded the $21 billion -- farallon capital management. i think he's a big time philanthropist. he'll join us next in a cnbc exclusive plus it's been an unusual trading week leading up to the employment report tomorrow, we'll check in with the "squawk on the street" crew at the new york stock exchange next.
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as you saw there, pretty traffic free times square because it is a snarl trying to get there. time for an update on trains and power outages because of sandy. jackie deangelis joins us with the latest numbers. >> president obama met with new jersey governor chris christie yesterday. the president toured some of the worst hit areas of the jersey shore saying 2,000 fema personnel are on the ground in affected states. at least 76 people have died in the u.s. as a result of sandy, most of them from new york and new jersey. the number of people without power is dropping, though there are still 5.6 million customers
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that are in the dark and it could be ten days before the hardest hit areas see their power restored. more than 19,000 flights were canceled because of sandy but stranded passengers have something to be thankful for. newark and jfk airports were back in business and delta and american airlines are scheduled to resume a limited number of flights out of laguardia this morning. the airlines are waving change and cancellation fees due to the storm. the mta getting back up and running as well, subways offering limited service today. long island and metro north railroads will begin limited service, they began it yesterday and the mta are also waving all fares on rail, bus and subway rides through tomorrow. little bit of good news but still tough out there. >> thank you for that. also a quick update, there's been confusion about people coming in on the george washington bridge about whether you need to carpool, three people or not. the deal is you can get across the bridge with less than three
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people, just one, but you can't get down the west side highway, they make you take local streets, that's bertha coombs who wrote in to report there are lots of people lined up on the george washington bridge and no one seems to know how this is supposed to work. >> you can get across the bridge but planning on getting downtown good luck. >> she says the west side highway is moving well if you have three people in the car. tom steyer founded farallon capital in 1996 and last week he announced he'll be leaving to focus on philanthropy, clean energy and public policy initiatives in california. we're happy to have tom joining us early in a cnbc exclusive interview. tom thanks for joining us this morning. >> good morning, andrew. >> we've been having a debate this morning given the storm here on this coast about climate change, about the issues involved in all of this, the cover of "business week"
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todaysation "it's global warming, stupid." how important is it from a business perspective, where is the opportunity? >> well, let me answer the first question first, which is how important an issue is it. i think it's the most important issue we face even though it's one we don't want to. i think if you look at what's been going on in new york, i don't think you can directly relate it to global warming, but i think the right analogy is to a baseball player taking steroids, which is all of a sudden in the '90s people were hitting a lot more home runs and hitting them a lot further, and i think really -- >> thewe haven't had a category land in seven years, first time in a century that hasn't happened. i hear what you're saying but you should at least, the hurricane activity has not picked up, since 2005, it was supposed to be every year and it hasn't happened. >> let me say two things, one is
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joe, good morning. >> good morning. >> nice to hear your voice. >> okay. >> the second thing i'd say is this in terms of weather related disasters, the cost in the last 30 years has gone up 5x. >> not in adjusted dollars. >> certainly dollars haven't gone up 5x. >> we had three incidents in 1954 in one year that were double what sandy was, three hurricanes in one year in 1954, double the damage on the east coast. >> the guys who are on your side, joe, which is a very dwindling number of people, the coates brothers found one of two reputable scientists, full professor at berkeley an absolutely straight guy said basically the way climate and temperature was being recorded was inaccurate. so they funded him to show and his theory was -- >> i've read his piece in "the new york times" and i didn't come away nearly with the, i
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mean i read the headline and after reading his piece, what he said was fair but it was not a blanket endorsement of anthropomorphic climate change. >> i'm not a scientist and by the way, you're not a scientist. >> but i did go to mit for grad school and took physics and chemistry and molecular biology and all of the nobel laureates i went to school with there, they may not be climate scientist, i don't know what a climate scientist is but the hard core scientists look at the earth as 5 billion years old and look at the variability we've seen and anything you do that's not measured in 10,000 years is kind of a joke, tom. >> well let me put it to you this way, joe, because you apparently have a keen sense of humor which i appreciate, and i agree with you, exactly what gets defined as the climate science is a good question but 97% of the people who are climate scientists believe this is happening and believe that it is caused by man. the other 3% aren't sure. so let's say we're not sure.
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let's go back to the old ronald reagan with the soviet union. you're not sure if there's a bear in the woods, but doesn't it make sense to take out some insurance in case there is? >> it makes sense we want clean air and clean water but to devote the whole united nations and to try to stop growth in china and india, to try to really do something that's going to be impossible to do, it's a hard thing, i mean -- >> let me say something i don't think you've spent as much time studying this in china as some other people have. >> yes. >> and i talked to them yesterday to find out what china was doing about climate change, what i prefer to call extreme weather and they're taking it extremely seriously. >> what about carbon emissions release? >> they are. no listen for a sec. maybe i can tell you something you don't know. >> okay. >> that's this, china has got i think 30% of its population is going to be in either cities or provinces where they're talking
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about energy intensity, and energy intensity is just another way of saying how much energy do you use for a given output of gdp so obviously that is not the same as a hard cap on carbon. but they are very aware of the need for a hard cap on carbon. i think they're going to start at 30%, going to move to 50% of the population in china by 2015, three years away. they are ahead of us and taking this seriously. >> tom, given where we are in the economy, tepid recovery at best, would you advocate for a carbon tax now? >> you know, i believe, i talked to a lot of people about the different ways to approach this, and that happens to be the one that is the flavor du jour. what i believe is that if we give people a direct
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organization of society, that's a bad phrase, if we give them, government's job is to describe what's important and if we describe the parameters for our economy, which is what the government's supposed to do, i believe the private sector will turn this inside out, will come up with stuff none of us have ever thought of and will make amazing things happen and be good for our economy. >> natural gas is not going to be the -- you would not like that? it's not in our best interest that gets to us energy independence? >> joe did you hear me say that? i can hear you trying to put words into my mouth. >> tell me is natural gas as promising as we think? >> let me say this. that is a very leading question. i would say natural gas is an incredibly important step for us. it is something that is very important. it will let us reduce our carbon footprint, it will get us off a massive amount of coal and it's cheaper and more effective and is better in different kinds of
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pollution, as well as carbon. >> tom, we have to go in a sec. but i have an investment question. would you be investing right now in wind and solar, given what joe was talking about in terms of natural gas, given some of the sources of energy that seem to be more promising at least right now? >> the key in wind and solar is going to be do you have a contract to sell the power, and that's going to be a case by case argument. if you take wind and solar, do i believe they are going to get to a place where they compete on their own? yes. do i also believe we're not charging all the pollution costs for many of our sources of energy? absolutely. >> tom, we have to leave it there. we'd love to have you in studio in new york. >> come on back, steyer. >> i'm coming for you. >> you're not working, you might as well come in. philanthropic things, help me out. would you bring your big jet
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back? how is that carbon footprint? >> i'd like to point out i don't is a big jet but if i tom thanks so much for joining us. >> when we come bark, we will have the recap of the earnings that have been hitting the state this morning.
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welcome back to the new york stock exchange. >> i love that discussion between you and tom. i worked with tom at gold man. i found common ground there at this natural gas issue. it does sound like there's a bridge to do. >> becky candice wirnd mill.
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>> i watching these lines all orange, jim, it's something else, there's still a lot of people were having trouble getting to work and beyond. >> there's people who just don't have enough people in the car. >> obviously they were on to something when they started that revolution. >> jim, what have you thought about the earnings that have been coming in this morning. is this something that's going to pick up steam on wall street. >> i like kellogg. exxon's always so hard to read, i heard you guys starting to parse it. i heard the same thing, production wasn't good.
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plus or minus 30 cents when we get there. >> nice margins, was that a crack spread, jim? >> yes, what's so interesting, i tell you, joe. after that discussion, a lot of the refiners were coming out saying we can't do business in california. california's been hijacked by academics environmentalists, all the refining cooperations in california have led to major declines for a lot of companies who said theyill doing very well. somebody said something about cap and trade, california must start to feel a little too much like europe. >> great, great, we are finding common ground. >> he had the ceo of eatono. preparing those transmission lines. >> the combination of cooper and eaton is really designed to make it so the transmission system
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worldwide is upgraded so that when you have 6 million to 8 million people without power, they can call him. >> tomorrow on "squawk box," one final employment report before the presidential election, one last read on job before america votes for its nec leader. we'll bring you the numbers and analysis from our annal of experts. it all starts tomorrow at 6:00 p.m. eastern. on how different asset classes are performing, and it lets you go in for a closer look at areas within a class or sector that may be bucking a larger trend. i'm stephen hett of fidelity investments. the etf market tracker is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. get 200 free trades today and explore your next investing idea.
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welcome back to "squawk box," it's julie robinson, the world is election, but before the election, you tried to hire mitt romney to run. it was actually after the primaries and i figured our business is grown and done well and it has been run by somebody who never had any profession l


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